Canada Needs a Major Rally to Hit Medal Goal

As if losing an Olympic hockey game at home to their rivals to the south wasn't bad enough, here's some more bad news for Canadians: Their country is on pace for its worst medal haul since 1992.

But no one is panicking just yet. At least not the brass. Canadian Olympic Committee President Michael Chambers said Sunday that although the U.S. dominated the first week of the Games, the second week would go to the host nation, predicting as many as 13 new medals for Canadian athletes.

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Patrick Chan of Canada reacts after his routine in the men's figure skating short program.

Is Mr. Chambers being overly optimistic? Not necessarily. The second week is back-loaded with events Canada is supposed to dominate. An aggregate score of predictions from five national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, had the Canadians winning 17 medals this week, in everything from women's bobsled to men's curling. But the prognosticators haven't handicapped Canada well so far. They had the country winning 10.3% of the medals through Monday afternoon, and it only won 5.7%—a pace worse than Canada had in the Games in Turin, Salt Lake City, Nagano and Lillehammer. All five publications expected medals for the Canadians in men's downhill and women's skeleton, and they ended up with nothing. All five have the men's hockey team medaling, and its path is suddenly much trickier after Sunday's loss to the U.S.

Regardless, there's almost no chance the Canadians will match their original "Own the Podium" goal of 35 medals, which would require them to take home 26.3% of remaining medals. No one has won at that rate in the Winter Games in 75 years.

Disown the Podium

Here is how Canada is doing in these Winter Olympics compared with previous Games.

OLYMPICS

TOTAL MEDALS WON

TOTAL EVENTS

% MEDALS WON

Vancouver 2010

9*

159

5.7

Turin 2006

24

252

9.5

Salt Lake City 2002

17

234

7.3

Nagano 1998

15

204

7.4

Lillehammer 1994

13

183

7.1

*Through Monday afternoon (53 events)

Printed in The Wall Street Journal, page D10

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