Analysis: Khodorkovsky verdict confirms Putin's grip on power
The convictions of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev, his former business partner, come as further confirmation that Vladimir Putin still holds the reins of power in Russia in spite of ceding the presidency to Dmitry Medvedev.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky is likely to stay behind bars for a long time Photo: AP
By Roland Oliphant in Moscow 4:45PM GMT 27 Dec 2010
Before the verdict there was some speculation that Mr Medvedev, who took over as president while Mr Putin became prime minister, would allow Mr Khodorkovsky to be freed. He had begun his presidency vowing to fight "legal nihilism", and has often spoken about the need for an independent judiciary.
It would have been a powerful sign of his commitment if the court had thrown out the Kafkaesque charges against Mr Khodorkovsky, which amount to an allegation that he stole all the oil his company had produced. It would also have made a nonsense of the original conviction for evading taxes from selling that oil.
At times too during the trial it seemed like the defence would win. Several high profile figures, including a former Putin trade minister who is head of the Russia's largest state-owned bank, testified to Mr Khodorkovsky's and Mr Lebedev's innocence. They were also absolved by their auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers.
In the end, the semblance of true process was, as an American diplomat wrote in a leaked embassy cable last November, like putting "lipstick on a pig". The political reality is that powerful people are determined to keep Mr Khodorkovsky behind bars. This is partly because they fear a challenge to the redistribution of assets that followed Mr Khodorkovsky's downfall. More generally though, Mr Khodorkovsky's incarceration has become harder to overturn as it has become a central part of the narrative of Mr Putin's political career.
The ruthlessness applied to the destruction of Yukos is no less important to Mr Putin's macho image than photo opportunities with tigers or shots of him swimming in Siberian rivers. Letting Mr Khodorkovsky go would be seen as a sign of weakness, not clemency.
Most Russians have little love of the fallen oligarch. This second conviction and the apparent absurdity of the charges is unlikely to damage Mr Putin or Mr Medvedev, who has made no secret after all that he values continuity with the previous presidency above reform.
Whatever sentence is eventually handed down this time, Mr Khodorkovsky must contemplate the possibility that he will not be released as long as Mr Putin is in charge. If Mr Putin chooses to stand for president again in 2012 and serves two six-year terms, as he would be allowed to do, that day will be a long way off.
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